Political Arithmetik

Political Arithmetik Blogspot. Where numbers and politics meet..

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Politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com news digest

  • 12 years

    We've Moved to PollsAndVotes.com

    In the beginning was PoliticalArithmetik, created the weekend Katrina hit New Orleans.
    In 1996 I co-founded Pollster.com. In 2010 HuffingtonPost bought Pollster and I moved on.
    In 2011 I've created PollsAndVotes.com, a site for more comprehensive analysis of polling and vote data. PollsAndVotes is ramping up for 2012. Come visit....

  • 15 years

    Undecided Voters and Racial Attitudes

    How will undecided voters break, and will racial attitudes color their votes?
    We've seen an enormous amount of speculation but little evidence based on data, so let's try to tip the balance back to empirical evidence.
    Thanks to the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll data, we can model individual vote choice and see what we would expect of undecided voters....

  • 15 years

    The Road to 270 for McCain

    (Click chart to see full size)
    It takes 270 to win this game. McCain is behind in national polls, down 7.5 in our Pollster.com Trend Estimate. But as you know, this is a game won in the states. So what does it now take for McCain to eek out a 270-268 electoral vote win?...

  • 15 years

    Tracking Poll House Effects

    There are six daily tracking polls currently reporting data, up from just two (Gallup and Rasmussen) during most of the year. How are they doing?
    Compared to our Pollster.com trend estimate based on all public polls, not too bad. The trend based on trackers only is close to that for the all polls trend, with an average difference of just 0.35 percentage points, a very slight under-estimate of...

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Web host: Google LLC
Registrar: MarkMonitor Inc.
Registrant: Google LLC
Updated: June 29, 2023
Expires: July 31, 2024
Created: July 31, 2000

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