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Nate Silver. Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, a...
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Democrats should have shut it down - by Nate Silver
The party’s risk aversion continues to harm it.
Natesilver.net news digest
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7 months
We’re looking forward to a busy 2026 here at Silver Bulletin, with the midterm elections, the World Cup, and an increasing number of other sports and politics-related models that run continuously on the site. We’d also like to slightly increase the number...
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7 months
� Our latest NFL team ratings
Updated October 16, 2025
It took a little longer than we thought … but after three months of nearly continuous work, our new NFL model, ELWAY1, is ready for some football. -
7 months
ELWAY is Silver Bulletin’s exclusive NFL team rating and forecasting system. It’s based on our analysis of every game in NFL history (since 1920), with a greater emphasis on recent seasons as more data has become available over time. QBERT is our quarterback...
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8 months
Is the Democratic Party dominated by progressives or by centrists?
Perhaps the only thing the various factions of the Democratic Party agree upon is that Donald Trump winning two of the past three presidential elections has been a disaster for the party. But American political parties are resilient, so there’s a lot...
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