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Magesblog.com news digest

  • 6 years

    Use domain knowledge to review prior predictive distributions

    At the Insurance Data Science conference, both Eric Novik and Paul-Christian Bürkner emphasised in their talks the value of thinking about the data generating process when building Bayesian statistical models. It is also a key step in Michael Betancourt...

  • 6 years

    Notes from the 1st Insurance Data Science event

    The first Insurance Data Science event was held at Cass Business School last week, 16 - 17 July 2018.
    The conference followed on from five iterations of the R in Insurance events, which have the aim of bringing together practitioners and academics together to discuss and exchange ideas and needs in the sector....

  • 6 years

    Hierarchical loss reserving with growth cruves using brms

    Ahead of the Stan Workshop on Tuesday,here is another example of using brms (Bürkner (2017)) for claims reserving.This time I will use a model inspired by the 2012 paper A Bayesian NonlinearModel for Forecasting Insurance Loss Payments (Zhang, Dukic...

  • 6 years

    Models are about what changes, and what doesn't

    Following on from last week’s post on Principled Bayesian Workflow I want to reflect on how to motivate a model.
    The purpose of most models is to understand change, and yet, considering what doesn’t change and should be kept constant can be equally important....

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