investing on the waves

Why growth in the world will not be as high as in the past
It is not necessary for economic growth to be so low in the coming years, but there are several factors why growth will be lower in the coming years than in the last decades.
In the

Ter Veer and I always judged in which phase we were in the cycle. The current cycle is lasting too long as happens often when you have had a very severe downturn with a long and this time slow recovery.
The prices of the S&P are compared with (red line) what the fundamental value seems to be: 14 times trailing earnings corrected for the cycle (with ISM/50). This shows the S&P went up about 200 points too much probably because of QE....

Business Insider had some nice slides where several gurus showed their chart of the year. The above of Matt King shows how the S&P500 marched up with the balance sheet of the FED. A $1000 billion QE was enough to get the S&P500 320 points higher...

The intention is to give forecasts for possible trends that are underestimated by the market according to us.
1. After a weak H1 US economic growth will surprise to the upside (3%+). 3.5-4% growth in 2014 very well possible.
2. According to expected QE and the president cycle of the last three decades the S&P500 should rise to 1620-1650. This could very well be the case even while the market will be more volatile than in 2012 with the possibility of a nasty shock that...