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Boys on the Bus – Hockey Meets Math

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Boysonthebus.com news digest

  • 4 years

    Neal’s 3rd rounder: deconstructing a beautiful condition

    Last week I analyzed James Neal’s projected goal totals for 2019-20, concluding that his average goal expectation was around 18.5 goals over an 82 game schedule. An astute observer noted that it was unlikely he would play the entire schedule, making...

  • 4 years

    How many goals will James Neal score in 2019-20?

    On Friday, news broke of one of the more anti-climactic 1-for-1 trades of former NHL stars when the Oilers and Flames swapped slumping players Milan Lucic and James Neal. While a near-obvious win for the Oilers with respect to contract terms alone, the...

  • 4 years

    When you can tell your goalie isn’t a starter — Part III — Bad Goalies

    Over the last couple of days I’ve posted on applying a simple statistical test to NHL goalies to gauge their starter potential and how this test performed on actual ‘good’ goalies.
    Today I’ll be exploring an unanswered question from yesterday — does this test falsely characterize actually ‘bad’ goalies as being good, thereby leading to false conclusions about their talent-level?...

  • 4 years

    When you can tell your goalie isn’t a starter — Part II — Good Goalies

    Yesterday I wrote about how you can apply a straightforward statistical test using the binomial distribution to accept or reject the notion that a particular goaltender has decent-NHL-starter talent as his career progresses. It turned out that Mikko...

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