The Fat Pitch

Many thanks to Advisor Perspectives for including the Fat Pitch in its list of the Top 25 Venerated Voices for 2019, placing ahead of much larger firms such as PIMCO, BlackRock, Northern Trust, AllianceBernstein and Franklin Templeton.
Advisor Perspectives publishes economic and market commentaries submitted by fund companies, advisors and independent research firms. In 2019, over 1,900 such commentaries were published and made available through a daily newsletter, Research Perspectives...

I was interviewed by Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense on December 17th.
This was a two-part interview; in the first half, I discuss my current run for political office and the challenges facing small cities; in the second half, I discuss the macro and equity outlook for 2020. If you want to skip around, here are some guideposts...

I live in a town across the Golden Gate Bridge called Mill Valley. My wife and I moved here in 1999 with our two small children who were 4 and 1 years old at the time. It was near the end of the dot.com bubble. We were both consultants living in Silicon...

Summary: The balance of the macro data remains positive. A recession starting in 2019 is unlikely, but, for the first time, a recession in 2020 is a rising possibility.
The bond market sees weakening growth. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2-year yields) ahead of every recession in the past 40 years (dots). The lag between inversion and the start of the next recession has been long: at least...