The Capital Spectator | Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & the S...

Recession risk remains low, but the torrid pace of GDP growth in recent quarters is expected to downshift in next week’s delayed fourth-quarter report from the government, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Today’s update indicates a 2.7% annualized increase in GDP, unchanged from the previous estimate. If accurate, output will ease following from Q3’s 4.4% pace, a two-year high....

Predicting is hard, especially about the future, runs an old joke. Does the “wisdom” of crowds help? There’s a long line of research suggesting it does. Combining forecasts from several models, for example, has an encouraging track record of outperforming...

Energy, basic materials, and defensive consumer stocks are in. Tech and financials are out. That, at least, is Mr. Market’s view so far in 2026, based on a set of US equity sector ETFs through yesterday’s close (Feb. 10).
Stocks in the energy patch continue to lead the field by a solid margin. The SPDR S&P Energy ETF (XLE) is up nearly 20% year to date. In addition to leading the other equity sectors, dramatically so in several cases, these shares have also left the...

The economy feels like a tale told through fogged‑up glass lately. Pick the “right” indicators and you can argue almost any version of reality. Forecasts are always a little blurry, but this moment feels different — the numbers themselves seem to be...