Basketballgeek. My senior research and writing project at the College of Charleston is complete, and the result of it is my bachelor’s essay....
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Best pages on Basketballgeek.com
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Conditioning the Distribution of Play Ending Events Given How the Play Starts
Tweet My last post took a very general look at how plays end in the NBA. To better understand how the game works, it’s important to know how the
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A Theoretical Model for The Probability of Winning a Basketball Game – Part 2
Tweet This is the second in a 3 part series where I will present a theoretical model for the probability of winning a basketball game. The 3 parts wil
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Examining Defense: Defensive Four Factors
Tweet Back at the end of September, I made a commitment to get more defensive for this season. To achieve this goal, I’ve been archiving a bunch
Basketballgeek.com news digest
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13 years
My senior research and writing project at the College of Charleston is complete, and the result of it is my bachelor’s essay. I’ve titled it “Modeling Basketball’s Points per Possession With Application to Predicting the Outcome of College Basketball...
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14 years
My 2010 NCAA Tournament Rating Methods
On March 21st I presented some work on rating college basketball teams with an emphasis on estimating win probabilities in future games at SIAM-SEAS 2010. You can download the following presentation for more details of the methods:
Estimating the Probability of Winning a College Basketball Game... -
14 years
Last year I posted my odds for the 2009 NCAA tournament, and this year I’ve made some improvements to help me fill out my bracket.
This year I’ve modeled the difference in each team’s mean points per possession per game. This model can then be used to estimate the probability of one team beating another team. In other words, I am modeling the difference in the team’s efficiency... -
14 years
Adjusting Individual Defensive Efficiency Ratings
A couple of months ago I presented individual defensive efficiency ratings for the 2008-09 regular season that I extracted from play-by-play data. In this post I will present a method for adjusting these ratings in an attempt to get a clearer picture...
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